Apply an expanded latticework of Munger-style mental models and cognitive bias detection. Enhanced with 11 mental models, bias detection, and advanced decision-making frameworks.
What would cause failure? Think backwards from the worst outcome.
Whose incentives matter? How do they shape behavior and outcomes?
Estimate likelihoods and think in terms of expected values.
Stay within expertise or explicitly acknowledge limitations.
Break down to fundamentals and challenge assumptions.
Apply Pareto principle and Occam's razor for clarity.
What are you giving up by choosing this option?
Multiple forces acting together create extreme outcomes.
Build in buffers for uncertainty and potential errors.
Consider consequences of consequences, not just immediate effects.
Understand interconnections, feedback loops, and emergent properties.